Thursday 7 April 2016

WHY COMPUTERS WILL NEVER BEAT AN EXPERT PAIR AT BRIDGE................. ( Article by Carp )

In games like chess , backgammon and go there's a one-to-one confrontation. The computer has full information of the board and pieces in play. The process of determining the best moves can be solved by decision trees , with options supported by reference to a large database of previous games , where both winning and losing moves are on record.
Bridge on the other hand would require two computers to operate independently of each other but in keeping with an agreed , albeit programmed , system card. Their understanding will therefore be in accordance with all the rules of the game , agreed conventions ,  logical deductions and mathematical/ probability analysis. What a computer pairing may never be able to achieve is table presence , intuition and an instinct for deceptive play. How can computers pick up the vibes from opponents' pauses , hesitations , moments of indecision and changes of mind ?  No matter how good the programming , computers may not be able work out what is going on when deceptive smokescreens are created by their expert opponents.
Indeed , when computers are hit with high level pre-empts, psyches , and/or off-center bids any decisions arrived at can be based on inaccurate data and/or false assumptions. The experts of course will possess are far greater understanding of the situation , knowing that all is not what it seems.
Playing bridge involves far too many intangibles that cannot be programmed into a computer. For instance experts know intuitively when the time is right to introduce " swinging " onto their bidding and play. Moreover , experts know how to muddy the waters to make life difficult for opponents , and when to adopt a passive or aggressive stance in bidding and/or defence. World class players have of course the ability to be imaginative , flexible and deceptive . They know how to set traps , smell rats , and to weave intricate webs of deception. Often in a well established pairing , each player develops a sixth sense as to what his/her partner is all about. This isn't cheating for it is wisdom based on years of experience. Computers are forced to rely on cold logic , and analysis based on hard facts stored in their memory banks.
Bridge they say is a game which to an extent relies on luck. Decisions often made in the absence of any information require a player to make a guess. Luck they say evens out allowing computers and humans to get the same amount. However , experts make their own luck by persuading their opponents into taking the wrong option .False carding along with other forms of deceptive play may become the only option for a defence , bereft of points , to outwit and outflank their opponents. Can computers recognize these situations at the table, or know how to spot and react to such cunning. ? 
So yes , at present my money will always be wagered on the experts to win.......at least for another century.   
   

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