Over recent weeks Bigot had been pulling his hair out in frustration. Trying to get this bunch of students into thinking at an advanced level was proving to be " a bridge too far ". So he decided to give them one last chance to redeem themselves.
" Listen you motley crew.......to play bridge well you need to be a good statistician.....someone who uses the data researched from the bidding and early play of the cards, along with knowledge of the probabilities and odds, to arrive at correct conclusions about the rest of the hand.
So to illustrate this point of drawing the correct conclusion from statistical data, I have a little problem for you to go at. Imagine you have been told that 40% of drivers involved in road accidents were under the influence of alcohol. What sensible conclusion can you draw from that ? "
All the students immediately started to scribble something down on their pads. For the first time they had been given a question they could answer. Optimism filled the room. Sophie was the first to speak.
" Drunk drivers are one of the main reasons behind so many road accidents. It's not safe to drive while under the influence of alcohol . "
Bigot stood there dumbfounded by what he heard. The woman was useless. She hadn't a bloody clue.
" That answer was a complete load of rubbish. You are not thinking outside the box ! The first thing you can deduce from that statement is 60% of the drivers involved in road accidents had not been drinking . This means that you are one and a half times more likely to be in an accident when sober. Therefore, it is obviously safer to drink and drive. "
The logic of Bigot's answer left many completely bemused and dejected.......
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